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宏大: 商用不動產 台北商辦領先 桃園工業第一 台中穩坐住宅、店面二項及四大類總樓板冠軍

近十多年來不同類型不動產的漲跌、趨勢及幅度都不盡相同,不同區域的漲、跌也不再是接近更不是同步。據宏大國際資產的統計分析,指出近六年來四大類商用不動產市場的消長,透過近年建築執照請照的總樓地板面積來檢視,可以看幾大類不動產在六都加新竹縣、市(以下簡稱六都+1)有不同的走勢來看出端倪。

六都+1四大類商用不動產近六年市場走勢

虎年開春後農曆新年將盡,在決定置產或投資之前,您還在人云亦云、跟著廣告聲量來做一知半解的投資,好似過年下賭注押大押小全憑運氣嗎?

近十多年來不同類型不動產的漲跌、趨勢及幅度都不盡相同,不同區域的漲、跌也不再是接近更不是同步。據宏大國際資產的統計分析,指出近六年來四大類商用不動產市場的消長,透過近年建築執照請照的總樓地板面積來檢視,可以看幾大類不動產在六都加新竹縣、市(以下簡稱六都+1)有不同的走勢來看出端倪。

宏大國際資產陳益盛總經理表示,早年台灣不動產的漲跌,以區域來說全台大致是一致的,也不分住宅、店面、商辦…等分類。近年來隨著區域交通發展改善,消費習慣及經營型態多變,不同類型不動產產品的市場好壞,取決於源頭使用者(企業)的產業興衰,不再是僅看大盤走勢來判斷。

陳益盛指出,2016年以來六年間四大類商用不動產的市場變化很大,但正是建築業大展鴻圖的時機。就產品比較而言,以住宅類樓地板面積的成長最大,建照面積達約3,460萬坪,工業產品次之達1,318萬坪; 以區位比較,開發樓板面積最多的是台中約達870萬坪,排名第二的桃園達約830萬坪, 都遠超過其他都會區。宏大國際資產分析,如就各類型產品進一步來看座落區域,可以較全盤看出各都的產業聚集及變化。工業類產品樓板面積第一的是桃園,商辦產品則為台北長期領先,台中則穩坐住宅、店面二項第一。以下就各類型產品進一步分析。

商辦市場:辦公室市場一直以來都是台北市為主,興建量佔了六都+1近4成,每年新建11萬坪~18萬餘坪之間,新北市次之約達每年6~8萬餘坪。但在2021年有二個地區核發建照大幅躍升竟超越台北市,其中桃園市一舉突破18.3萬坪及台中市達16.9萬坪。六都+1的辦公室樓板也從2016年的35.3萬坪倍數成長到70.2萬坪。陳益盛長期經營商辦市場,表示商辦仍是以台北市為核心,其中前幾年新建案主要區域座落在內湖區,近二年則以南港區為主,台北以外次之為新北市,近年已有不少上市、櫃公司從北市遷往新北,一來是台北市成本高,二來也供給量也不足。同時隨著交通改善,尤其新增捷運沿線或捷運規劃定案的區域,也是建商及企業會考量進駐的。以新北而言,早期僅板橋、新店、中和較具群聚效益,近年汐止、新莊、三重、土城等區,也成了原台北的企業遷移的選擇之一。台中的商辦市場則由七期重劃區帶動逐步成形,桃園也由高鐵站及藝文特區為主發展逐漸成形。

零售/店面市場: 陳益盛表示在2016年時他就提到「台北市東區店面光環不再」,至今逐步應驗,近年自從陸客觀光客遞減之後,在電商消費逐年攀升之際,實體店面消費金額持續下滑,加上新冠疫情可謂雪上加霜,因此近幾年零售市場表現差,相對也反映到新建照申請。六都加一近六年新增樓板面積是四大類增加最少。未隨著房地市場熱絡之際,店面/零售市場,出租不易,出售亦難,已低靡多年,在租金及售價持續下探之後,似乎有逐漸打底之勢。其中僅高雄首先逆勢竄出,南高雄百貨商圈開打,近年有興富發、富邦人壽、義聯及聯上四大企業,投入在百貨開發案,尤其富邦人壽取得高雄「捷運凹子底站商業區開發案地上權」,計畫興建樓板面積約15萬坪的複合式商場百貨,創下南部百貨商場開發面積歷史新高,可以預見未來高雄區零售業大戰將相當激烈。由於全球疫情重症及死亡率趨緩,台灣疫情相對控制得宜,也嗅出零售店面市場,似乎有逐步打底的態勢,是否能像回到2003年SARS期間,開始有零售業逢低進場,以承租或購買大開分店,值得觀察。

工業/倉儲: 自2012年來工業不動產已逐年擺脫「空蕩蕩廠房乏人問津」,成為「熱騰騰寸土寸金」。六都+1近六年來工業及倉儲開發是穩定成長,尤其桃園從2016年就帶頭成長,在2019年新建樓地板就達69.6萬餘坪創近20年新高,2020-2021增加幅度雖趨緩,但仍是六+1都最高,新北及台中緊追在後。有別於其他不動產,多數是供給大於需求,但是工業不動產現今最大市場現象是全台幾乎都供不應求,主因在於內資、外資、台商回台的投資持續,加上後疫情電商物流的跳躍式成長,尤其具生產規模的現成廠房或物流用倉儲明顯供不應求,因此工業不動產仍然最為持續看好。

工業產品看好,分布較廣且分散的小型300~1000坪廠房全台都缺,500~3,000坪的科技辦公分布,近十年是以中和、新店及汐止為主,近期因交通捷運等改善,新莊、三重、土城、林口等處也逐漸有廠辦園區或大樓興建。另一項也極為缺貨的是1,000~20,000坪的倉儲等,都是市場需求迫切的產品。

土地市場/住宅建造: 土地市場交易約有5成以上是做為住宅建案的原料,如果將工業地、地上權案、特定商場錯開,住宅占比可達8成,所以住宅建照請照統計可以最直接反映土地市場的冷或熱。六都+1的建照請照自2016年來大致全都是逐年攀升,由於資金充裕、持續低利率、股市交易突破萬八,加上預期通膨壓力等主要幾項因素,住宅房地市場持續熱絡,尤其台中明顯請照量最大,自2018-2021計4年間年年突破百萬坪,於2020年達近年最高的152.7萬餘坪,第二名之爭新北市及桃園市也表現互有領先,也同時突破百萬坪樓地板面積。比較近年土地交易對應到建照請照可以明顯看出幾乎如出一轍,看得出房屋市場的熱絡,帶動土地交易持續連五年攀升,到了2021年才稍回放緩。2020年土地市場仍看好,但先前興建案陸續開工、完工,量體預估已達百萬戶之譜,且因營建成本仍高,開發新建案宜持續放慢。從住宅建照及土地交易較2020年趨緩審視,並非不看好市場,而是營建成本及原物料大漲,土地也跟著漲,開發商一來找不到合適的土地,或者地價太貴買了興建也沒利潤,不得不積極但審慎。

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